COVID-19 is affecting all of us and while most have no accepted we need some kind of social distancing to stop the spread of the virus, one big question remains: how long is this going to take?
The pandemic has sent the world into turmoil and we are moving in to uncharted waters … effectively, we have never experienced a pandemic of this scale AND economic implications … most likely this is also the first time we have captured so much data about a pandemic almost in realtime.
Whenever you need to make predictions about complex situations you have little prior experienced with, models and simuations are a good starting point to explore the situations, test your assumptions, design strategies to deal with the situation and make qualitative and quantitative predictions about which effect the strategies might have.
We are creating a set of simulations of the COVID-19 pandemic … the simulation is deliberately kept simple to ensure that users understand the underlying model and assumptions, still it already is useful in allowing you to explore the implication of social distancing strategies.
We have provided the complete code for the simulation in the form of Jupyter notebooks and Python code on GitHub, so you can expand on the simulation if you would like to.